We live in a highly interconnected world where epidemic outbreaks become instant global threats to the health and security of nations. The impact that millions of interactions between individuals have each day on the transmission dynamics and evolution of diseases like influenza or rotavirus or tuberculosis, to name a few, continues to challenge public health experts and decision makers everywhere. In Mexico City, for example, over five million individuals travel in packed subway cars for over an hour each day establishing an ideal environment for the transmission of infectious diseases like influenza or tuberculosis. Further, the implementation of “social distancing” had a multi-level impact on the dynamics of influenza in Mexico. In this seminar, the role of mathematical models and computer simulations, in identifying the factors most responsible for the spread of diseases, is highlighted. Public health responses are assessed in situations where, for example, only limited drug supplies or vaccine stockpiles are accessible, as it was the case in the recent influenza pandemic. The discussion will be primarily framed in the context of the dynamics of influenza with references to tuberculosis, rotavirus infections and possibly malaria.
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