Financial/Actuarial Mathematics Seminar

Academic Year 2007-2008: Thursdays 3:10-4:00, 3088 East Hall



Finite Horizon Decision Timing with Partially Observable Poisson Processes

Semih Sezer

Department of Mathematics, University of Michigan

March 6, 2008



Abstract

We study decision timing problems on finite horizon with Poissonian information arrivals. In our model, a decision maker wishes to optimally time her action in order to maximize her expected reward. The reward depends on an unobservable Markovian environment, and information about the environment is collected through a (compound) Poisson observation process. Examples of such systems arise in investment timing, reliability theory, Bayesian regime detection and technology adoption models. We solve the problem by studying an optimal stopping problem for a piecewise-deterministic process, which gives the posterior likelihoods of the unobservable environment. Our method lends itself to simple numerical implementation and we present several illustrative numerical examples.
This is joint work with Michael Ludkovski (U of M).


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