Seminar Event Detail


Financial/Actuarial Mathematics

Date:  Wednesday, April 06, 2016
Location:  1360 East Hall (4:00 PM to 5:00 PM)

Title:  Dependence between components of multivariate conditional Markov chains: Markov consistency and Markov Copulae

Abstract:   Modeling of evolution of dependence between processes occurring in financial markets is important. Typically, one can identify marginal statistical properties of individual processes, and then one is confronted with the task of modeling dependence between these individual processes so that the marginal properties are obeyed. We have been advocating, for some time now, to address this modeling problem via the theory of Markov consistency and Markov copulae.

In this talk we shall examine the problem of existence and construction of a non-trivial multivariate conditional Markov chain with components that are given conditional Markov chains. In this regard we shall give sufficient and necessary conditions, in terms of relevant conditional expectations, for a component of a multivariate Markov chain to be a Markov chain in the filtration of the entire chain - a property called strong Markov consistency, as well as in its own filtration - a property called weak Markov consistency. These characterization results are proved via analysis of the semi-martingale structure of the chain.

Several financial applications will be indicated.

Files: 3641_Bielecki.pdf


Speaker:  Tom Bielecki
Institution:  IIT

Event Organizer:   Erhan Bayraktar    erhan@umich.edu

 

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