Recommended Texts: Probability by Breiman, SIAM Classics in Applied Mathematics.
Probability: Theory and Examples by
Durrett, Duxbury Press.
Probability and Measure by Billingsley, Wiley.
The goal of this course is to develop some of the major ideas of probability
theory. Emphasis will be placed on specific examples and on ways to compute
expectation values. We begin with the most basic of all processes, the simple
random walk. This is equivalent to studying the tosses of a fair coin. We prove
the strong law of large numbers, the central limit theorem, recurrence property
and the law of the iterated logarithm for this system. The proofs of these
theorems depend on an ability to compute expectation values of various random
variables. In the next part of the course we develop systematic methods for
computing expectation values. This leads to the study of finite difference
equations. We construct the continuous process Brownian motion by taking a
limit in which the finite difference equations become partial differential
equations.
The second part of the course is concerned with some ideas which have
wide application. These represent an abstraction of ideas involved in studying
the simple random walk. The first of them is the idea of a measure preserving
transformation and the notion of ergodicity. We shall prove the vonNeumann and
Birkhoff ergodic theorems. We also shall prove the Poincare recurrence theorem
and show how recurrence times can be estimated from the invariant measure. The
second is the idea of a Markov process. We shall discuss Markov chains on a
finite state space, obtain an invariant measure for the chain and prove
ergodicity.
The final part of the course is an introduction to Ito's stochastic
integration theory. We shall rigorously define a stochastic integral and prove
Ito's lemma. Stochastic differential equations and their solutions will be
discussed in a heuristic manner. The ideas involved will be illustrated by
simple examples, in particular linear equations.